Time:2026-01-19Reading:937Second
Nowadays, memory chips have entered the strongest super bull market in history, with prices constantly soaring and production capacity being extremely scarce. The smartphone industry will face a huge impact.
The latest report from TrendForce Consulting points out that since the second half of 2025, the prices of DRAM and NAND flash memory have significantly increased, forcing multiple mobile phone brands to raise the prices of new phones.
Although mainstream manufacturers have not significantly reduced their production plans for the first quarter of 2026, TrendForce predicts that due to the transmission effect of price increases, the pace of brand shipments will significantly slow down from the second quarter onwards.
Some manufacturers have started to evaluate and lower their annual production targets, especially after high-end models raised prices due to a surge in storage costs, resulting in lower than expected market acceptance.
Despite generally holding a conservative attitude towards the market outlook in 2026, various brands still adopt a "priority order locking and supply guarantee first" strategy in memory procurement, without synchronously reducing orders to avoid higher costs or supply interruption risks in the future.
However, due to factors such as the concentrated rush to ship by the end of 2025, the retreat of China's national subsidy policy, and the price increase of new machines, the inventory of channel finished products is gradually accumulating.
If the speed of retail sales cannot be improved, some brands may converge their production schedules ahead of schedule by the end of the first quarter of 2026.
Overall, the first half of 2026 will be a crucial window for brands to adjust their product structure and pricing strategies.
Considering the inventory digestion cycle and the time required for production line switching, the main production plan revisions will be concentrated in the second to third quarters.
Under the influence of multiple factors such as weak overall economic environment, conservative consumer behavior, and continuous rise in memory prices, TrendForce has lowered its estimate for the total production of smartphones in 2026. Compared to the version released in November 2025, the annual reduction rate has expanded from 2% to 7%.
